Saturday, 10 March 2012

Bubble breakdown: Opportunity knocks for NC State today ()

If NC State wants to be certain it hears its name called on Sunday evening, the Wolfpack have the opportunity to accomplish that today. All they need to do is snap a 12-game losing streak to rival North Carolina on Saturday in the ACC semifinals. The top-seeded Tar Heels swept the season series yet again this year, winning by 19 in Chapel Hill and by 12 in Raleigh. A 13th consecutive loss to North Carolina won't necessarily doom NC State to the NIT, but it will make for an anxious wait until 6 p.m. EST on Sunday, especially with possible bid thieves lurking in the Atlantic 10 and Conference USA. Below is my take on the bubble picture as it stands entering Saturday's action. 59. Texas (20-13, 9-9, RPI: 52): The combination of Texas' win over Iowa State and a wealth of losses from its bubble brethren have the Longhorns in solid shape despite their semifinal loss to Missouri on Friday night. A 5-10 record against the RPI top 50 isn't great, but Texas has now beaten Temple, Kansas State and Iowa State twice, which is more than most of other bubble teams have done. Their only two bad losses of the season were against Oregon State and Oklahoma State. 60. Colorado State (19-11, 8-6, RPI: 22): It's a testament to how flawed the rest of the bubble teams are that Colorado State's lack of success away from home likely won't be a deal breaker. The Rams' only road win in conference play came over Air Force, but they boast a top 25 RPI and notable wins over UNLV, San Diego State and New Mexico. The Rams couldn't get a clinching win against the Aztecs in the Mountain West semifinals on Friday night, but Thursday's win over TCU looks like it may be enough. 61. Xavier (20-11, 10-6, RPI: 59): Thanks to a second-half rally from a double-digit deficit against rival Dayton in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals, Xavier should feel pretty good about its position. A win over Saint Louis in the semifinals would make them a lock, but it's hard to see them being bypassed either way at this point.  Xavier's at-large case is bolstered three pre-brawl wins over Purdue, Vanderbilt and Cincinnati. Since then, the Musketeers' notable wins came at home over fellow bubble teams Saint Joseph's and Dayton.