The Chase begins this weekend at Chicagoland, and that's one of only two tracks (Homestead is the other) out of the 10-race Chase which is a one-time visit for the NASCAR Sprint Cup series. That gives us a statistical basis, if not necessarily a representative sample size, to make some guesses as to which driver is in the best position to make a run at the Cup.
Here, courtesy of reader "Gus," are the average finishing positions of each of the 12 Chasers at the eight Chase tracks at which the Sprint Cup series has already run this season. We start with the worst average finish and move upward. No fair peeking at No. 1 ...
12. Tony Stewart (average finish: 15.4)
11. Jeff Gordon (13.5)
10. Clint Bowyer (13.3)
9. Kasey Kahne (12.1)
8. Jimmie Johnson (11.7)
7. Greg Biffle (11.2)
6. Brad Keselowski (10.9)
5. Denny Hamlin (10.5)
4. Martin Truex Jr (9.9)
3. Kevin Harvick (8.9)
2. Matt Kensenth (8)
1. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (7.1)
Huh. Well, how about that. Dale Earnhardt Jr. as a potential Cup champion? Statistically, it's possible. These stats make at least objective sense. The top four managed to keep themselves in the Chase (or at the top of the heap) by consistent quality finishes; they have only two wins among them. Stewart has been checkers-or-wreckers all season, and Gordon cranked up his year at non-Chase tracks.
Obviously this is by no means definitive — there are two tracks unaccounted for, for starters — but this is an interesting look at past history and consistency. And it's another way to keep Junior Nation watching, am I right?
